Analyzing the accuracy of wheat farmers perceptions in Mahidasht district of Kermanshah Township about the climate change trends in the region

Authors

• Sara Ghobadi Aliabadi ¹
• Hossein Agahi ²
• Homayoun Farhadian ³

¹ Ph.D graduate in Agricultural Extension and Education, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

² Associate Professor of Agricultural Extension and Education, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

³ Associate Professor of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

10.30495/jzpm.2021.27342.3851

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. The purpose of this research was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of wheat farmers perceptions of climate change in Mahidasht district of Kermanshah Township. To evaluate the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions, this study also explored the pattern and trend of climate variability in the study area, using historical meteorological data analysis. Research sample including 158 wheat farmers in Mahidasht district of Kermanshah Township, which were selected using two-stage cluster sampling technique. In this research, both secondary data and primary data were utilized. The accuracy of perceived patterns of local climatic changes by wheat farmers was evaluated during the statistical periods of 1970 to 2000 and 2000 to 2018. It was observed that wheat farmers perceptions of the rainfall amount during the autumn, winter and spring were highly accurate, they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperature changes of the winter. After comparison of the wheat farmers perceptions with the historical data analysis, the individual farmer’s perceptions were categorized into three levels, findings showed that 64.21% of the total sample, were in the group of high perception of climate variability, 28% farmers were in the medium perception group and 7.79% of the total sample, were in the group of low perception. Therefore, the obtained results show the high accuracy of farmers to changes in climatic parameters and climate events in the region. So today, more than ever, there is context to talk more and more about climate change with farmers, and we can hope to create a shared picture of the current and future situation. Therefore, by providing accurate information about the current climate of the region and predicting the trend of these changes in the future, it is possible to increase the adaptation of farmers to climate change.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Risk Perception
• Accuracy of Perceptions
• Wheat Farmers
• Mahidasht

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