Spatial prediction of city resilience against natural hazards (case study: Qaemshahr city)

Authors

• hamzeh behrouzi ¹
• mohamadreza zandmoghadam ²
• Saeid Kamyabi ³

¹ PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

² Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University of Semnan

³ Associate Professor, PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

10.30495/jzpm.2022.30577.4115

Abstract

Resilience has been defined as "a process of ability, or the result of successful adaptation despite threatening conditions", which plays an important role in dealing with the stresses and threats of life and its adverse effects. Also, resilient cities are vulnerable to events. mitigate extremes and respond creatively to environmental, economic and social changes in order to increase their long-term sustainability. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to predict the resilience of Qaemshahr city against natural hazards. The method used in this research is to use GIS software in order to determine points with more resilience and use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm intelligence (PSO) methods and their programming in MATLAB environment, in order to Using it, the most important components of the city's resilience and the effective strategies to strengthen resilience will be determined. The present research was conducted in two stages, in the first stage, first, using the AHP model, the degree of resilience of urban areas against the 3 hazards of floods and earthquakes. and the landslide was determined and after that the final risk map (resilience level) was prepared by combining all the mentioned components. In the second stage, in order to determine the most important components of the city's resilience, this time 32 indicators of the resilience components were compiled based on 4 criteria (physical-spatial, economic, social, institutional) and analyzed using the genetic algorithm method. Finally, 3 points of the city (Shahid Watani Stadium, Telar Park, Siraj Park) were selected and prioritized as areas with more resilience. Then, in order to confirm and compare the research findings, the PSO method was used by the genetic algorithm (GA). As a result, it can be said that there is a significant difference in terms of resilience among the city's regions, that the increase in the resilience of Qaimshahr city The first stage requires strengthening and modifying the structures of the natural environment and then maintaining the safe environment.
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
The concept of resilience was first proposed by Halling in 1973 in the field of ecology. However, different definitions of resilience in the field of accidents have been presented since then, the last of which is related to the definitions of the American National Academy ( Carolin, C., and Benoit, R., (2010)). It should be noted that the introduction of the issue of resilience into the urban issue, crisis management and organizations, and even the lives of people is the birth of a new culture. Phrases such as resilient societies, resilient livelihoods, creating resilient societies and resilient organizations are commonly used in scientific articles and operational plans.
 
Methodology
In this study, according to the objectives and facilities of collecting the required data from reports, documents and statistical information from related organizations and maps of comprehensive and detailed plans and aerial photographs and preparing a questionnaire. Also considering that this
The research is applied and its results can be used in Ghaemshahr development projects, so to select the research method, classification methods were used. According to this method, this research will be a combination of different research methods. In this research, first a descriptive research method is used about the current situation and then the causal method is used. With this method - the reasons for the creation of this city and how to expand it and then the reactions that have occurred against it in the physical area of the city are investigated and after summarizing this section, the use of information collected from urban planning sources have become indicators. And is used to evaluate and measure the resilience of the city. Is more efficient and uses the methods of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm intelligence (PSO) and their programming in MATLAB environment, to use the most important components of urban resilience and effective solutions to strengthen the cloud Be specified. The present study was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, first, using AHP model, the degree of resilience of urban areas against the three risks of floods, earthquakes and landslides was determined, and then by combining all the mentioned components, the final risk map (resilience rate) was prepared. In the second stage, to determine the most important components of resilience in the city, this time 32 indicators of resilience components based on 4 criteria (physical-spatial, economic, social, institutional) were developed and examined using the genetic algorithm method. The PSO method was used to confirm and compare the research findings by genetic algorithm (GA). Finally, a descriptive method will be used to evaluate and explain the problems and present the results.
 
Results and Discussion
The purpose of this study is to investigate the different dimensions of resilience of Ghaemshahr city against natural hazards with emphasis on 3 components of earthquake, flood and landslide. And green spaces, educational uses, population density, communication routes, sports uses, physical density, distances of high voltage power lines and worn texture as the criteria studied for the selected earthquake category. It has been added and using the AHP model the Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce weighted layers of the above criteria has been produced.
 
Conclusion
Increased urban resilience is influenced by various structures that play a fundamental role as a context for development. Planning and policy-making in urban management requires a general determination and an integrated management at different geographical levels, which from this perspective, a systematic approach to all the factors of physical-spatial, institutional, economic and social structures is essential. According to the results of this study, increasing the resilience of Ghaemshahr in the first stage requires strengthening and modifying the structures of the natural environment and then maintaining the existing potentials.
 

Keywords

• Resilience
• Genetic Algorithm
• Natural Hazards
• PSO
• MATLAB

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