پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی کرونا ویروس در مناطق روستایی (مورد مطالعه: روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در شیوع ویروس کرونا، بین جمعیت روستایی- شهری و سکونتگاه‌های روستایی و شهری تفاوت ویژه‌ای دیده نمی شود. با این‌حال به عنوان یک بحران، ویروس کرونا تأثیر منفی در اقتصاد روستایی داشته و یا می تواند محرک مهم برای نوآوری در مشاغل جدید در نواحی روستایی باشد. امروزه شیوع کروناویروس تبدیل به یک بحران بزرگ جهانی‌شده و کشورهای زیادی از‌ جمله ایران را‌ درگیر کرده است. پژوهش‌ حاضر با هدف بررسی پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی کروناویروس در مناطق روستایی بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل انجام یافته است، که از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و بر‌اساس ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی می باشد، جامعه آماری32روستای دارای دهیاری بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل با جمعیت 8038 نفر است. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران 384 نفر برآورد گردد که به تناسب تعداد سرپرست خانوار موجود در هر روستا توزیع گردید. جهت بررسی موضوع از دو شاخص(اقتصادی و اجتماعی) در قالب 30 نماگر براساس مطالعات سایرمحققین بهره گرفته شد. روایی پرسشنامه توسط پانل صاحبنظران متخصص و مجرب در این حیطه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و تأیید گردید. جهت تعیین پایایی پرسشنامه نیز تعداد 30 پرسشنامه در منطقه مشابه توزیع گردید و ضریب پایایی آن در متغیر اجتماعی 826/0، در متغیر اقتصادی 852/0 و پایایی کل پرسشنامه 839/0 برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان داد که کاهش حداکثری تعاملات اجتماعی غیرضروری در نواحی روستایی، شرط اصلی کنترل شیوع کرونا است. بعلاوه، شیوع ویروس برروی پس انداز، تعطیلی کسب وکارها، تعدیل نیروی کار و کاهش درآمد خانوار و ناکافی بودن وام های اعطایی دولت در زمینه شیوع کرونا اثر منفی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural areas (Case study: villages in the central part of Ardabil)

نویسنده [English]

  • kiuomars khodapanah
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Abstract
In the prevalence of coronavirus, there is no significant difference between rural-urban population and rural and urban settlements. However, as a crisis, the coronavirus has a negative impact on the rural economy or can be an important driver for innovation in new jobs in rural areas. Today, the coronavirus outbreak has become a major global crisis, affecting many countries, including Iran. The aim of this study was to investigate the economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural areas of central Ardabil, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical nature. The statistical population is 32 villages in rural areas of central Ardabil with a population of 8038. The sample size was estimated based on Cochran's formula of 384 people, which was distributed according to the number of heads of households in each village. To study the subject, two indicators in the form of 30 indicators based on the studies of other researchers were used. The validity of the questionnaire was reviewed and confirmed by a panel of experts in this field. To determine the reliability of the questionnaire, 30 questionnaires were distributed in the same area and its reliability coefficient in the social variable was 0.826, in the economic variable was 0.852 and the total reliability of the questionnaire was 0.839. The results showed that the maximum reduction of unnecessary social interactions in rural areas is the main condition for controlling the prevalence of corona. In addition, the spread of the virus has had a negative effect on savings, business closures, labor cuts, declining household incomes, and insufficient government lending in the area of the corona outbreak.
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
Infectious diseases have always existed in human history, but over time, new infectious diseases have emerged that are progressing rapidly. In developing countries, infectious diseases have led to many deaths and problems. Most people affected by these diseases live in rural areas with very few resources and limited services; These people are at high risk of these diseases due to the economic and social context of their place of residence and living conditions. One of the emerging infectious diseases in the last two years is Covid 19 disease. The prevalence of coronavirus did not distinguish between "poor and rich" and "rural-urban", while rural areas before the outbreak of Covid 19 were at the forefront of positive examples of community support, neighbors and friends; The virus can represent the creative response of the community in business and adaptation to the crisis in rural areas and an important driving force for innovation in rural jobs. Because the behavior of "counteracting and preventing corona" occurs in space and the rural environment is affected and received; Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural communities in the central part of Ardabil city.
 
Methodology
The present study is applied in terms of purpose and based on descriptive-analytical nature. The statistical population of the study is 32 villages in the central part of Ardabil city with a population of 8038 people. The sample size was estimated to be 366 people based on Cochran's formula. The method of data collection to answer research questions was library and questionnaire. The instrument used in the survey method was a questionnaire that in order to measure the research variables, the required indicators based on the studies of other researchers were used in combination so that the corona outcome variable of 30 indicators in the form of two economic and social indicators has been used.
 
Results and Discussion
In this study, a one-sample t-test was used to examine the villagers' views on the consequences of coronavirus. In this test, according to the findings, the average economic and social indices were 2.87 and 2.80, respectively. The significance level of both indicators is less than the test error level of 5%, also the average of these indicators is less than the desired three limits. Therefore, it can be said that both indicators are not in the desired level for the villagers and this issue shows the economic and social effects of coronavirus in their lives. Findings obtained from multivariate regression coefficient to investigate the share of one or more independent variables in the dependent variable showed that the level of significance of the test with a confidence level of 0.95 of economic and social index with beta coefficients of 0.793 and 0.614, respectively. Has an effect on the dependent variable. And with 0.690 and 0.582 of the total variance, respectively, explain the coronavirus outcome. Also, in order to study the consequences of coronavirus, the status of each indicator based on decision-making techniques, using Shannon entropy method, each indicator was assigned a specific weight. To the indicators of increasing savings (0.051), preventing the entry of peddlers (0.0377) and in the social index belong to the indicators of maximum reduction of unnecessary social interactions (0.049), increasing disorders and depressions (0.032), respectively.
 
Conclusion                                                                                                                                    
The results of field findings show that economic and social indicators from the perspective of villagers with averages of 2.87 and 2.80, respectively. The level of significance of both indicators is less than the level of test error of 5%, and also the average of these indicators is less than the number of the desired three limits (number three is equivalent to 60% of respondents). Therefore, it can be said that both indicators are not in the desired level for the villagers and this issue shows the adverse effects of economic and social indicators of Corona virus on their lives. Also, the results of the study in the study of social indicators showed that the community affected by coronavirus has relative knowledge and awareness in this regard and in rural society the most important condition for controlling the prevalence of coronavirus is to reduce maximum unnecessary social interactions. Organizing for relatives and acquaintances not to travel to the village during the summer holidays is one of the important issues that are associated with it, and as a result, the social and personal relations of the rural community are affected by the corona virus epidemic. One of the most important economic consequences of coronavirus in the studied rural community is the role of encouraging households to decide to save a lot, close businesses, reduce labor force and reduce household income and insufficient government loans to prevent coronavirus.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic and social consequences
  • corona virus
  • rural community
  • Ardabil city
  •  

    References

    • Adiyoso, W., Wilopo, W. (2020). Social Distancing Intentions to Reduce the Spread of COVID19: The Extended Theory of Planned Behavior. Preperint, Available on the https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-61524/v1
    • Afarakhta, H. (2019). "Paradigm evolution in the space economy (passing the space analysis approach)", Ekotaz Quarterly Space and Rural Development 9(13), 1-

    https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23222131.1399.9.31.1.4 [In Persian].

    • Agapitova, N., Sanchez, B., Tinsley, E. (2017). Government Support to the Social Enterprise Sector: Comparative Review of Policy Frameworks and Tools; The World Bank: Washington, DC, USA.
    • Asgharpour, M. (2006). "Multi-Criteria Decisions", 4th edition, Tehran University Press, Tehran [In Persian].
    • Bennett, K., Phillipson, J. )2004). A Plague upon their Houses: Revelations of the Foot and Mouth Disease Epidemic for Business Households. Sociol. Rural, 40(3), 261–284.

    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9523.2004.00275.x

    • Carico, R.R., Sheppard, J., Thomas, C.B. (2020). Community pharmacists and communication in the time of COVID-19: Applying the health belief model. Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy.
    • Deputy of Infrastructure Research and Production Affairs of the Office of Infrastructure Studies of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, (2020). On Dealing with the Corona Outbreak (25) "Overview of the Challenges of Rural and Nomadic Businesses during the Corona Outbreak", available athttps://rc.majlis.ir/fa/report/show/1502019.
    • Hartley, E. M., Hoch, M. C., Cramer, R. J. (2018). Health Belief Model and Theory of Planned Behavior: A Theoretical Approach for Enhancing Lower Extremity Injury Prevention Program Participation. International Journal of Athletic Therapy & Training, 23(1), 16-20.
    • Imani Jajarmi, H. (2019). "Social Consequences of Corona Spread in Iranian Society", Social Impact Assessment Quarterly 2, 87-102.

    https://sid.ir/paper/524157/fa [In Persian].

    • Jenkins, W.D., Bolinski, R., Bresett, J., Van Ham, B., Fletcher, S., Walters, S., and Ouellet, L. (2020). COVID-19 during the Opioid Epidemic-Exacerbation of Stigma and Vulnerabilities. The Journal of Rural Health, 1–3.
    • Kalateh Sadati A. K, B Lankarani M. H., Bagheri Lankarani, K. (2020). Risk Society,Global Vulnerability and Fragile Resilience; Sociological View on the CoronavirusOutbreak, Shiraz E-Med J. Online ahead of Print; 21(4):e102263. doi:10.5812/semj.102263. Retrieved from:
    • Karimzadeh, H., Khaleghi, A., & Naghizadeh, R. (2019). Analysis of rural society's environmental perception of the spread of the corona virus in the central part of Varzeghan city, Space Economics and Rural Development Quarterly, 9(33).

     https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23222131.1399.9.33.3.0 [In Persian].

    • Milbourne, L., Cushman, M, (2015), Complying, Transforming or Resisting in the New Austerity? Realigning Social Welfare and Independent Action among English Voluntary Organisations. J. Soc, Policy, 44, 273.
    • Mitra, S, (2020), The implications of COVID-19 for rural India, IDR 25, March, https://idronline.org/the-implications-of-covid-19-for-rural-india.
    • Moradi, A., & Mohammadifar, N. (2019). The role of social networks in the formation of social panic and lifestyle change caused by the corona virus (a case study of Kermanshah city), scientific journal of social order 12(2), pp. 123-148.

    https://sid.ir/paper/380250/fa [In Persian].

    • Morens, D.M., Folkers, G.K., and Fauci, A.S. (2004). The challenge of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Nature, 430(6996), 242-249.
    • Mphande, F.A. (2016). Infectious diseases and rural livelihood in developing countries. Springer, Singapore.
    • Mukhtar, S. (2020). Mental health and emotional impact of COVID-19: Applying Health Belief Model for medical staff to general public of Pakistan. Brain, Behavior, and Immunity. 87, 28–29 [In Persian].
    • Rahnama, M. R., & Bazargan, M. (2019). Modeling the spatial distribution pattern of the Covid-19 virus in rural and urban areas of Iran, Space Economy and Rural Development Quarterly 9(3), 25-48.

    https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23222131.1399.9.33.2.9 [In Persian].

    • Reynolds, M. (2020). What is coronavirus and how close is it to becoming a pandemic?. Wired UK. ISSN 1357-0978. Archived from the original on 5 March 2020. Retrieved 5 March 2020.
    • Shahnazi, H., Ahmadi-Livani, M., Pahlavanzadeh, B., Rajabi, A., Hamrah, M. S., and Charkazi, A. (2020). Assessing Preventive Health Behaviors from COVID-19 Based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) among People in Golestan Province: A CrossSectional Study in Northern Iran. Preprint, Available on the https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-24871/v1[In Persian].
    • Tajri Moghadam, M., Zabeidi, T., & Yazdanpanah, M. (2019). "Cross-case analysis of preventive behaviors against the corona virus: rural areas of Dashtestan", Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development 9(33), 1-24.

     https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23222131.1399.9.33.1.8 [In Persian].

    • Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Chen, Y., Qin, Q. (2020). Unique epidemiological and clinical features of the emerging 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) implicate special control measures. Journal of Medical Virology, 92, pp. 568-576.
    • Zhu, N., Zhang, D., Wang, W., Li, X., Yang, B., Song, J., and Niu, P. (2020). A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine, 382, 727-733.