نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد شهرسازی، برنامهریزی منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.
2 دانشیار برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ای، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.
3 دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The increase in changes and rapid global reformations have boosted uncertainty toward the future and thus complexity of problems and difficulty in decision-making and planning in the fields of environment preservation and ecology sustainability. Regional foresight, as a brand new approach, plays an important role in ecological issues which can provide a sound understanding of what might happen in the future based on various human and technology measures. Based on these facts, the present study aims at the formulation of spatial scenarios based on ecologic sustainability in Mashhad metropolitan region through the regional foresight approach. This research is an applied one and it is descriptive-analytic in nature and method. The data and information required for the research are a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collected through documentary and survey studies (interviewing experts). Fuzzy Linguistic Mic Mac by FL MicMac software was used to analyze data and identifying key factors and Morphological analysis and Morphol software were used to analyze and formulate the scenarios. The results of the study indicate the impact of 11 key factors: "academic defects in the long-term planning of the region", "legal drawbacks, inattention to regulation and law enforcement by the relevant authorities", lack of policy integration in planning”, "Over-Establishment of Industries in the Mashhad Plain (Axar-Quchan-Mashhad)", "Migration", "Expansion of Transport Lines (Roads and Transportation)", "Unstable income of regional municipalities", "Irregular cultivation and irrigation of agricultural products", "Unauthorized exploitation of mines", "Technology" and "Insufficient trust in public participation and ignoring the role of NGOs" on ecological development of Mashhad metropolitan region. Also, according to the research findings, Mashhad metropolitan region will be faced with five possible scenarios with a significant probability of 4.1 in spatial development. Each of these scenarios is compared using components such as "probability percentage", "inertia value" and "degree of utility of each scenario", and finally the third scenario (Ecotopia) is selected as the optimal scenario of the region. This scenario was growing and more favourable than other scenarios, and its assumptions indicate the gradual movement of key factors of spatial development in the region based on ecological principles.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
1- Abdoli, Sh., Habib, F., & Babazadeh, M. (2018). Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 20 (3), pp 1293-1309.
2- Alinasab, M., & Souzanch, K. (2013). Achieving the goals of sustainable development of urban valleys river based on ecological evaluation (Case study: Darabad valley river Tehran. Journal of Naghsh Jahan, 3 (2), pp 51-61.
3- Bararpoor, K. (2007). Investigating the Causes and Consequences of Environmental Destruction Cycle in Kelardasht (Pathology, Complications and Theory of Processing). Journal of Ecology, Tehran. 34 (45), pp 121-137.
4- BazazZadeh, M., Dadashpoor, H., & Motavaf, Sh. (2014). Analysis the Key Factors Impacting on Regional Development using Regional Foresight approach, The Case Study of West Azerbaijan Province. Spatial planning, Iran. 4 (2), pp 79-104.
5- Bengston, D. N., Kubik, G. H., & Bishop, P. C. (2012). Strengthening environmental foresight: potential contributions of futures research. Ecology and Society, 17 (2), pp 1-12.
6- Carpenter, S. R., Bennett, E.M., & Peterson, G. D. (2006). Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview. Ecology and Society, 11 (1), pp 1-14.
7- Carter, J. G., & White, I. (2012). Environmental planning and management in an age of uncertainty: the case of the Water Framework Directive. Journal of environmental management, 113, pp 228-236.
8- Cook, C. N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2014). Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making. Trends in ecology & evolution, 29 (9), pp 531-54.
9- Dadashpoor, H., Azizi, P., & Moghadasi, M. (2019a). Land use change, urbanization, and change in landscape pattern in a metropolitan area. Science of the Total Environment, 655, pp 707-719.
10- Dadashpoor, H., Azizi, P., & Moghadasi, M. (2019b). Analyzing spatial patterns, driving forces and predicting future growth scenarios for supporting sustainable urban growth: Evidence from Tabriz metropolitan area, Iran. Sustainable Cities and Society, 47, 101502.
11- Dadashpoor, H, and Salarian, F. (2018): Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran. Environment, Development and Sustainability, pp 1-22.
12- Dadashpoor, H. and Lavasani, A. (2015): Analysis of Spatial Patterns of Sprawl in Tehran Metropolitan Region. Journal of Spatial planning, 5 (16), pp 123-146.
13- Dadashpoor, H., Jahanzad, N., & Jalili, H. (2015). Analysis and Forecasting of the Integrated Spatial Structure in Mashhad Metropolitan Region in the Period 1996- 2041. Urban Studies, 5 (18), pp 51-62.
14- Dadashpoor, H., & Jahanzad, N. (2015). Simulation of future land use changes based on the optimal ecological model in Mashhad urban complex. Geographical research of urban planning, 3 (3), pp 343-360.
15- Destatte, Ph. (2010). Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development. Technological forecasting and social change, 77 (9), pp 1575-1587.
16- Farhanad Consulting Engineers. (2011). Mashhad Urban Complex Project, Khorasan Razavi Housing and Urban Development Organization.
17- Gavigan, J.P., Scapolo, F., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Farhi, F., Lecoq, D., & Di Bartolome, T. (2001). FOREN Guide-Foresight for Regional Development Network-A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight. European Commission, December.
18- Granjou, C., Walker, J., & Salazar, J. F. (2017). the politics of anticipation: On knowing and governing environmental futures. Futures, 92, PP 5-11.
19- Higdem, U. (2014). the co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight. Futures, 57, PP 41-50.
20- Hoseini, M., Barghchi, M., Bagherzadeh, F., & Siyami, Gh. (2015). Environmental Impact Assessment of Irregular Development of Cities (Case Study: Mehr Housing Project - Torqabeh City). Journal of Regional Planning, 5 (18), pp 43-58.
21- Huang, R., Ma, Y.X., Li, HM., & Liu, W.J. (2013). Effect of road development on landscape pattern in Xishuangbanna. Journal of Yunnan University Natural Sciences Edition, 35(1), PP 121-128.
22- Kass, G. S., Shaw, R. F., Tew, T., & Macdonald, D. W. (2011). Securing the future of the natural environment: using scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature. Journal of Applied Ecology, 48 (6), PP 1518-1526.
23- Kelly, R., & Ratcliffe, J.S. (2005). STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUSTAINABLE URBANISATION.
24- Moradi Yari, H., Omidi, P., & Eyni, Z. (2014). Ecological role of ecology in sustainable urban development. National Electronic Conference on Sustainable Development in Geography and Planning. Tehran. Mehr Arvand Higher Education Institute.
25- Niewöhner, J., Wiedemann, P., Karger, C., Schicktanz, S., & Tannert, Ch. (2005). Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014. Technological forecasting and social change, 72 (2), PP 195-211.
26- Neuvonen, A., & Ache, P. (2017). Metropolitan vision making–using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures. Futures, 86, PP 73-83.
27- Sajasi Ghidari, H. & Sadrossadat, A. (2015). Identifying the factors affecting land use changes in Piranshahr villages of Mashhad metropolis. Journal of Rural Research, 6 (4), pp 825-851.
28- Shakweer, A., & Youssef, R. M. (2007). Futures studies in Egypt: water foresight 2025. Foresight, 9 (4), PP 22-32.
29- Shirvani Naghani, M., Eyvazi, M., & Ghasemi, H. (2017). How and why the concept of interdisciplinary strategic foresight in transdisciplinary Future Studies. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities. 9 (35), pp 1-24.
30- Statistics Center of Iran. (2011). General Census of Population and Housing.
31- UNIDO. (2010). Technology Foresight, Austria: Vienna International Centre.
32- Veenman, S., & Leroy, P. (2016). Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty. Futures, 82, PP 63-75.
33- Wu, X., Liu, Sh., Cheng, F., Hou, X., Zhang, Y., Dong, Sh., & Liu, G. (2018). a regional strategy for ecological sustainability: A case study in Southwest China. Science of the Total Environment, 616, PP 1224-1234.
34- Zali, N. & Zamanipoor, M. (2016). Presentation and implementation of a new model for scenario planning in regional planning, Case study: Mazandaran province Geography and urban-regional planning, 6 (18), pp 1-24.
35- Zugasti, I., Hernáez, O., Destatte, Ph., Cutsem, M. V., & Roëls, C. A. (2011). an initial assessment of territorial forward planning/foresight projects in the European Union. comittee of the regions.
)
