سناریوهای توسعه شهری در پهنه جنوبی استان آذربایجان شرقی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله های برگرفته از پایان نامه

نویسندگان

• وحید بنایی ¹
• اسماعیل کاووسی ²
• علی توکلان ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

² استاد گروه برنامهریزی فرهنگی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

³ استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

10.30495/jzpm.2021.27663.3872

چکیده

یکی از چالش بی‌رویه در فرایند توسعه شهری کشورهای در حال‌ توسعه در آینده برای دستیابی به توسعه مطلوب و پایدار رشد شتابان آن‌ها می‌باشد. امروزه دستیابی به چنین توسعه‌ای در آینده برای حل مشکلات زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی و توجه به خلأهای موجود و تعیین چشم‌اندازهای آینده و ارائه سناریوهای مختلف امری مهم و ضروری است. هدف از این مقاله ارائه سناریوهای مختلف توسعه شهری در پهنه جنوبی استان آذربایجان شرقی است. روش تحقیق از لحاظ هدف توصیفی- تحلیلی و از لحاظ روش از نوع اکتشافی می‌باشد. در این تحقیق برای تجزیه‌ و تحلیل اطلاعات کمی و کیفی از نرم ‌افزار میک‌ مک، سناریو ویزارد و اثرات متقاطع استفاده گردد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌ دهد که در پهنه مورد مطالعه 5 عامل کلیدی بازیگران اصلی و مؤثر بر فرایند توسعه هستند که وضعیت آن‌ها در حال حاضر مناسب نمی‌ باشد. اگرچه سناریوهای احتمالی امیدهای فراوانی به وقوع شرایط مطلوب در پهنه جنوبی استان را نشان می‌ دهد منتها وقوع شرایط بحرانی دور از انتظار نیست. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق حاکی از 11 سناریوی باورکردنی با ترکیب‌های متفاوتی از وضعیت‌ها، احتمال وقوع در پهنه جنوبی استان را دارند که متأسفانه احتمال وقوع رویدادهای منفی بالاترین احتمال تحقق را دارند. با اینکه تعداد کمتری از این سناریوها مطلوب هستند و بخش عمده‌ای از سناریوهای 11 گانه حالت‌های نامطلوب را نشان می‌دهند ولی احتمال تحقق شرایط بحرانی در پهنه جنوبی استان به مراتب بالا‌تر از احتمال تحقق شرایط مطلوب است. بنابراین، در میان سناریوهای محتمل، سناریوی اول، مهم‌ترین و محتمل‌ترین سناریوی پیش روی توسعه پهنه جنوبی استان آذربایجان شرقی است

کلیدواژه‌ها

• توسعه شهری
• مدیریت شهری
• میک‌مک
• اثرات متقاطع
• سناریو ویزارد

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Urban development scenarios in the southern part of East Azerbaijan province with a futures research approach

نویسندگان [English]

• Vahid Banaei ¹
• e k ²
• a t ³

¹ PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

² Professor of Cultural Planning Department, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Planning, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the challenges in the process of urban development of developing countries in the future to achieve the desired and sustainable development is their rapid growth. Today, achieving such future development is important and necessary to solve environmental, economic, social, and physical problems, as well as to address existing gaps and determine future perspectives, and to present different scenarios. The purpose of this article is to present different scenarios of urban development in the southern part of East Azerbaijan province. The research method is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose and exploratory in terms of method. In this research, Mickey Mac software, Wizard scenario and cross-effects can be used to analyze quantitative and qualitative information. The results of this study show that in the study area, 5 key factors are the main actors and influences on the development process, whose situation is not suitable at present. Although the possible scenarios show high hopes for the occurrence of favorable conditions in the southern part of the province, the occurrence of critical conditions is not far from expectation. The results of this study also indicate 11 believable scenarios with different combinations of situations, the probability of occurrence in the southern part of the province, which unfortunately the probability of negative events is the highest probability of occurrence. Although fewer of these scenarios are desirable and most of the 11 scenarios show unfavorable conditions, but the probability of realizing critical conditions in the southern part of the province is much higher than the probability of realizing favorable conditions. Therefore, among the possible scenarios, the first scenario is the most important and probable scenario for the development of the southern part of East Azerbaijan province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Urban Development
• Urban Management
• Micmac
• Cross-Effects
• Scenario Wizard

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