آینده‌نگری کشت نخل خرما در مناطق خشک و فراخشک جنوب‌شرقی ایران براساس سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

3 استاد گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

4 دانش‌آموخنه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

چکیده

نخل خرما یک محصول مهم تجاری در بسیاری از کشورها از جمله ایران می ‌باشند. درک شرایط اقلیم احتمالی آینده، تصمیم گیران را قادر به تبیین استراتژی های مناسب برای مدیریت تغییرات می‌سازد. در بررسی حاضر، شرایط اقلیمی و نیاز آبی نخل خرما در مناطق خشک جنوب‌شرقی ایران تحت شرایط اقلیم احتمالی آینده شبیه‌سازی شده است. برای این منظور، از مدل شبیه‌سازی تصادفی هوا (LARS-WG) برای تولید سناریوهای اقلیمی در مقیاس محلی بر پایه مدل‌های اقلیمی جهانی برای ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم آینده استفاده شده است. پیش‌ بینی ها برای دوره دوره زمانی آینده نزدیک(2040-2021) و آینده دور (2080-2061) بر پایه داده‌های مشاهداتی ایستگاه های هواشناسی سراوان و ایرانشهر در دوره پایه 2010-1987 صورت گرفته است. نیاز آبی نخل خرما نیز از طریق برنامه کامپیوتری CROPWAT 8.0 برای دوره های مدنظر بر پایه داده‌های اقلیمی شبیه‌سازی شده تعیین گردیده است. نتایج حاصل از شبیه‌سازی های اقلیم، کاهش کیفیت اقلیم بهینه‌ نخل خرما را در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشان می‌ دهد. بدین مفهوم که افزایش پیش‌بینی شده مقدار بارش قادر به جبران کسری تبخیر و تعرق ناشی از افزایش پیش‌بینی شده دما نخواهد بود و این شرایط نیاز آبی محصول را افزایش می‌دهد. اما در سوی دیگر، تغییر رژیم بارش (زمان دریافت) و رویدادهای حدی آب و هوا اثرات منفی بر کشت نخل خرما در جنوب شرقی ایران خواهد داشت. نتایج این بررسی می ‌تواند سهم قابل توجهی در اتخاذ سیاست های آینده نگرانه دولت ها برای رویارویی با اثرات و چالش های تغییر اقلیم بر روی بخش کشاورزی ایفا نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The future of date palm cultivation in the arid and extra-arid regions of southeastern Iran based on climate change scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Hamidianpour 1
  • Hamid Nazaripour 2
  • Mahmood Khosravi 3
  • Mohadeseh Vazirimehr 4
1 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
4 M.Sc. Graduated, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) is an important commercial crop in many countries, including Iran. Understanding the possible future climate conditions will enable environmental managers to prepare appropriate strategies to manage the changes. In the current study, climatic conditions and water requirement of date palm in arid regions of southeastern Iran have been simulated under possible future climatic conditions. For this purpose, the stochastic weather generator model (LARS-WG) has been used to generate local-scale climate scenarios based on global climate models (GCM) to assess the effects of future climate change. Forecasts have been made for the near future period (2040-2021) and the distant future (2080-2061) based on observational data of Saravan and Iranshahr weather stations in the base period of 1987-2010. The water requirement of date palm has also been determined through CROPWAT 8.0 computer program for the intended courses based on simulated climatic data. The results showed that a relative decrease in climatic suitability for date palm cultivation in the study district by 2100. This means that the predicted increase in precipitation will be not able to compensate for the evapotranspiration deficit due to the predicted increase in temperature, and these conditions will increase the water requirement of the crop. But on the other hand, changes in rainfall regime (time of receipt) and extreme climate events will have negative effects on date palm cultivation in southeastern Iran. The results of this research can play a significant role in adopting forward-looking policies to address the impacts and challenges of climate change on the agriculture section of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Projection
  • farsighted Planning
  • Crop Water Requirement
  • Date Palm (P. dactylifera)

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 10 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 اسفند 1399

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